Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.350125 2.498580 2.656057 2.836309 3.037880 3.257485 3.516383
2025-06-01 2.115543 2.315557 2.538577 2.808305 3.129347 3.504102 3.982181
2025-06-08 1.979906 2.210230 2.476033 2.810424 3.227361 3.740982 4.440248
2025-06-15 1.892755 2.146688 2.448065 2.839934 3.348572 4.006209 4.958107
2025-06-22 1.788375 2.051542 2.370303 2.795059 3.363525 4.127016 5.289042
2025-06-29 1.698159 1.966307 2.296605 2.745886 3.363167 4.220434 5.586285
2025-07-06 1.613417 1.882188 2.217770 2.681983 3.333855 4.265303 5.810171
2025-07-13 1.579010 1.859257 2.215158 2.718120 3.444652 4.522704 6.412050
2025-07-20 1.552522 1.844367 2.221099 2.764742 3.572480 4.818279 7.133975
2025-07-27 1.528851 1.831382 2.227960 2.811791 3.703406 5.132924 7.958983
2025-08-03 1.484588 1.788683 2.191633 2.793324 3.730639 5.277158 8.482953
2025-08-10 1.443121 1.747832 2.155568 2.772373 3.751117 5.410471 9.013671
2025-08-17 1.401742 1.706137 2.117259 2.746998 3.764347 5.536237 9.571378
2025-08-24 1.362953 1.666538 2.080127 2.721104 3.774382 5.657256 10.154254
2025-08-31 1.335421 1.641319 2.062155 2.723138 3.830886 5.872939 11.043110
2025-09-07 1.317391 1.628486 2.061181 2.751134 3.933853 6.194256 12.343051
2025-09-14 1.280361 1.587602 2.017466 2.708558 3.908056 6.247474 12.883907
2025-09-21 1.244281 1.546972 1.972635 2.661878 3.871275 6.272846 13.351851
2025-09-28 1.206217 1.502486 1.920632 2.601172 3.804704 6.226154 13.570677
2025-10-05 1.195794 1.497134 1.926648 2.635507 3.916567 6.590611 15.407535
2025-10-12 1.188440 1.495823 1.938464 2.679781 4.050854 7.030717 17.864358
2025-10-19 1.181406 1.494644 1.950258 2.724435 4.189920 7.510633 20.968233
2025-10-26 1.159527 1.471049 1.926633 2.706911 4.203048 7.674227 22.692578